It’s the women, stupid! Barack Obama cannot win re-election without piling up a sizable majority among female voters. Sorry, fellas, but the ladies will pick the next president.
In 2008, 8 million more women voted than men, and women accounted for 53 percent of the electorate. Obama barely edged John McCain among male voters but trounced him by 13 points among females. Recent polls reflect a similar trend this year.
In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, Obama trailed Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee, by 6 points among men but beat him by 18 points among women. Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who helped conduct the survey, summarized: “Up until six weeks ago, Democrats suffered from an intensity gap, but this has closed as women — particularly suburban women — have turned against the GOP.”
Team Obama is keenly aware of this shift, and the president now makes a direct appeal to women in almost every public appearance. At his latest press conference, he said women vote on a “whole range” of issues and added: “I believe that Democrats have a better story to tell to women about how we’re going to solidify the middle class and grow this economy.”
The president is only the point man for a much larger campaign. Recent online ads for his re-election effort feature his wife, Michelle, and his two daughters. Mailings went out this week to a million women emphasizing the benefits they’ll receive from the president’s health-care bill, including low-cost mammograms and extended coverage for grown children in their 20s. On International Women’s Day, the State Department publicized an initiative that’s given grants to female entrepreneurs in 41 countries.
Of course, women, like men, are deeply influenced by the economy. Mitt Romney’s wife, Ann, was right in saying, “Do you know what women care about? Women care about jobs.” They also care about family budgets and the recent spike in gas prices that some polls show is depressing Obama’s favorable rating with both genders, particularly in low-income households.
Since 1980, however, a structural gender gap has favored Democrats, and it’s worth dissecting why. Start with the role many women play in their own families. They tend to be the nurturers, the caretakers, worrying about their children and their parents, and that makes them more supportive of social welfare programs, from food stamps and Medicare to the new health-care measure.
”Women 30 to 55 are always the most important target in health care,” says Bill McInturff, a Republican who helps conduct the Wall Street Journal/NBC survey. They “are more engaged and active in the health-care system, more than any other age and gender. It’s not surprising they’d be a target of the Obama administration and campaign on this issue.”
