That’s the question many voters will be asking themselves over the next three months. How they answer it will probably decide who takes the oath in January.
Barack Obama’s spectacular world tour – ecstatic crowds, brilliant visuals, a virtual endorsement from the French president – has convinced the infatuated intelligentsia that balloting is a mere formality. But don’t be fooled. This election is far from over. And in his cooler moments, Obama is a shrewd politician who knows that those 200,000 adoring Berliners don’t vote in Dayton or Daytona.
“This is going to be a close election for a long time,” he told a fundraiser this week, “because I’m new on the national scene and some people sort of like what they see but they’re still unsure.”
They sure are unsure. The Web site RealClearPolitics, which averages all national polls, puts Obama’s lead at a mere 2.6 points, 46.3 per cent to John McCain’s 43.7 percent. And the key states that have decided the last two elections are even closer: In Ohio, Obama’s margin is 1.5 percent; Florida is dead even; and McCain leads in Missouri by 2.5 points.
A look inside those numbers shows why voters are “still unsure” about the first-term senator from Illinois, and their doubts start with a single word: experience.
During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton convinced 18 million voters to support her because she was “ready on day one” to become president. It wasn’t enough, because, in many states, his “change” message trumped her “ready” mantra. But those were Democratic primary voters.
When the ABC/Washington Post survey asked a national sample to choose between “strength and experience” or “new direction and new ideas,” respondents split right down the middle.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll sends even stronger warning signals to the Obama camp. As commander in chief, voters preferred McCain by 53 percent to 25 percent; and they rated Obama the “riskier choice” by 20 points. President Bush won a second term in part because he convinced enough voters, particularly mothers of small children, that in a dangerous world, he offered a more secure option than John Kerry. And that pattern is showing up again.
Democrats cannot win the White House without a strong majority among female voters, and Obama’s 14-point advantage among all women (according to a recent Pew poll) resembles Bill Clinton’s 16-point margin in 1996. But among married women, Obama’s edge shrinks to 4 points.
