“Winning hearts and minds” is an ancient cliche in Washington. During the Cold War, it meant convincing folks in places like Vietnam and Nicaragua to reject communism. Today, it means combating the spread of radical Islam from Iran to Indonesia.

But the real fight in the capital today is for the heart and mind of only one person: George W. Bush. Fellow Republicans are desperately trying to force a change in his Iraq policy before two things happen.

First, Congress imposes changes on him. And second, Republicans have to run for re-election with an exceedingly unpopular war chained around their necks.

At times, this battle has emerged in public. After months of mounting frustration, a string of Republican senators – led by Richard Lugar of Indiana – has broken ranks with the White House. Lugar is one of the most seasoned and sensible voices in Congress and knows that Capitol Hill is a lousy place to make foreign policy.

But he also knows that the American people have lost patience with the president and share the conclusion that “the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved” by doing so. Only by shifting strategy, he warns, can the president ward off a congressional drive to set firm deadlines for troop withdrawals.

“The president and his team must come to grips with the shortened political timeline in this country for military operations in Iraq,” says Lugar. “A course change should happen now, while there is still some possibility of constructing a sustainable bipartisan strategy in Iraq.”

In Washington, the most important signals are often sent indirectly. Officials who lack Lugar’s courage (and fear White House retribution) leak their views to influential writers, hoping to crack through the hard shell of denial and unreality encasing the president.

So conservative columnist Robert Novak reports that national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley was dispatched to Capitol Hill to “extinguish fires” ignited by Lugar’s bombshell. The mission “failed,” Novak writes, quoting a Republican senator: “They just do not recognize the depth of the difficulty they are in.”