Having failed to convince fellow Republicans of the merits of comprehensive immigration reform, President Bush now faces the even more difficult task of defending free trade against protectionist Democrats.
A tide of populism, protectionism, nationalism and xenophobia is washing over the country, fueled by right-wing radio talk-show hosts, CNN firebrand Lou Dobbs – and legitimate concerns that U.S. workers are falling behind in the global struggle for jobs and good wages.
Anti-globalization is a worldwide phenomenon, in fact, that’s being exploited by populist demagogues such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, whose influence is spreading in Latin America.
Even though his influence is at its all-time lowest ebb, Bush somehow needs to mount a campaign to convince Americans that their continued prosperity depends on an open world-trading system.
Election exit polls confirmed that the country generally supports Bush on immigration – 57 percent of voters said illegal workers should have a chance to stay in the country – but other polls indicate Americans are fearful about trade.
A Gallup Poll in April showed that by a margin of 65 percent to 30 percent, Americans believe workers are “mostly hurt by increased trade between the United States and other countries.”
Last July, the House passed the Central American Free Trade Agreement by a mere two votes, with only 15 Democrats in support. That history bodes ill for Bush’s upcoming trade agenda, including renewal of “fast-track” negotiating authority and the already negotiated agreements with Peru and Colombia.
The House last week even declined to pass an agreement with Vietnam that totally benefited the United States by opening Vietnam’s markets to U.S. goods, in the process embarrassing Bush as he was headed to the Asian economic summit in Hanoi.
The rejection stemmed partly from other reasons, such as antipathy toward the high-handedness of outgoing House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., and the bill is slated to pass eventually. But it was still a symbolic post-election bash to the idea of free trade.
By one estimate, 27 victorious Democratic House candidates campaigned at least partly against free trade. Ohio’s winning Senate candidate, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D), is one of Congress’ most vociferous opponents of trade agreements, including those promoted by the administration of former President Bill Clinton.
What’s more, with the ascendancy of China critic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to Speaker, U.S. relations with that trading giant likely will come under pressure. Congress may well pass an across-the-board 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports as punishment for China’s manipulation of its currency.
Bush almost certainly would veto the measure, which is sponsored by Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., but the exercise will put the administration on defense.
Moreover, a Democratic Congress is likely to increase farm subsidies, making it all the more difficult to win the market-opening concessions from Europe that are needed to revive the stagnant Doha round of world trade negotiations.
The administration needs to mount a four-part strategy: a vigorous public-education process to change attitudes on the merits of trade; an aggressive effort to fight trade cheating by China and other rivals; a serious upgrade of programs to help workers cope with the effects of trade; and a change of policy on including labor and environmental standards in future trade agreements.
Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and others have delivered their share of speeches on trade, but Bush needs to devote a substantial portion of his State of the Union address to the subject and motivate pro-trade forces in the country to educate the public.
